# NZIER / Office for Seniors — Business of Ageing: 2023 Update (Published August 2024)

Document ID: doc-0073  
Publisher: Office for Seniors  
Catalogue publication date: August 2024  
Physical PDF pages: 26  
Original capture/access label: June 2026  
Source and original reviewed: 9 October 2026

Original local PDF: [Retained original](/pdfs/2023%20-%20NZIER%20-%20Business%20of%20Ageing%20Update.pdf)

Primary publisher source: [Document or publication listing](https://www.osc.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/7000OFS_Business-of-Ageing-update-2023_3.pdf)

## What the document contributes

Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the contribution of people aged 65 and over through paid work, self-employment, tax, expenditure and unpaid activity. The report uses 2021 and 2023 baselines and a projection horizon to 2071, showing growing older-worker numbers even as population ageing reduces the group’s overall participation rate. Despite its ‘2023 update’ title and July 2024 cover date, the publication statement says August 2024. Its forecasts, proxy spending data and inconsistent unpaid-work figures are historical evidence; the separately published 2026 model changes inputs and the GST treatment of asset drawdown.

## Substantive findings

- The 26-page original is authored by Tom Dunn, quality approved by Todd Krieble and commissioned by the Office for Seniors. Page 2 states Published August 2024; the cover says July 2024 and ‘2023 update’ identifies the model edition.
- Table 1 projects the 65+ population from 868,800 in 2023 to 1,809,400 in 2071, using the stated Stats NZ median population assumptions, rather than observed future counts (pp. 5–7).
- Table 2 distinguishes 194,700 older workers in 2021, 208,300 in 2023 and a projected 392,400 in 2071. The older workforce’s national share rises from 6.7% in 2021 to 10.6% in 2071 (pp. 7–9).
- The model projects wages and salaries from $5.9 billion in 2021 to $30.7 billion in 2071, expressed in constant 2021 dollars. Real-wage and demographic assumptions drive these estimates (p. 13).
- Unpaid-work valuation uses 2009–10 Time Use Survey hours and alternative proxy wages. Table 5 and the narrative/key points give differing totals; exact unpaid-work headline amounts need reconciliation before reuse (p. 15).
- Household-spending estimates use proxy household types because age-specific series were unavailable; the report warns that these may distort housing and utilities and do not reliably describe the actual 65+ spending distribution (pp. 15–18).
- The 2026 successor reports a calculation correction and changes the asset base for GST on drawdown from currency/deposits to total financial assets. The historical update’s tax estimates should not be presented as current observed revenue or compared without checking methods.

## Identity, dates and provenance

The cover says July 2024; page 2 explicitly says Published August 2024 and cites NZIER (2024), so the publication statement is used without inventing an exact day. Repeated ‘Companion report’ running headers occur in this PDF, but the publisher separately lists the 2023 update and the companion report on people aged 50–64; this 65+ report is not silently merged with that different document.

The October 2026 review enriches the catalogue and this editorial companion; it does not replace the original publication date or the June 2026 access/capture label. The original PDF and filename remain unchanged.

## Where to check the original

Pages 1–2: dates and authorship. Pages 5–9: population and labour-force projections. Page 13: income model. Pages 14–15: tax and unpaid-work methods. Pages 15–18: spending proxies. Pages 19–20: wider contributions and conclusions. Pages 22–26: model tables.

## Evidence limits and use

Table 1’s 2023 all-people 80+ entry (112,200) does not reconcile with its male/female entries (88,800 and 119,500). The brief avoids repeating that inconsistent sub-row. The unpaid-work key points/narrative and Table 5 also differ; no new corrected total is invented. The key-points tax amount excludes a component that the accompanying text can appear to include, whereas section 2.5 provides the more detailed distinction. The 2026 successor explicitly changes the GST asset measure after a calculation error. All forecasts depend on assumptions and price bases; unpaid work includes household activity and is not solely formal volunteering or unpaid care.

## Additional primary sources

- [Publisher research series and separate editions](https://www.osc.govt.nz/our-work/business-of-ageing-research)
- [2026 successor PDF, printed page 8 footnote on asset/GST correction](https://www.officeforseniors.govt.nz/assets/documents/our-work/Business-of-Ageing/NZIER-Business-of-Ageing-2026-report.pdf)