# Web Capture: Subnational Population Projections (2023(base)–2053)

**Source:** Stats NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa
**URL:** https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/subnational-population-projections-2023base-2053/
**Capture Date:** 7 June 2026

## Overview

Stats NZ released subnational population projections by age and sex for all 16 regions of New Zealand and 67 territorial authorities (TAs), covering the period from 2023 (base) to 2053.

## Key Facts

| Metric                  | Detail                 |
| ----------------------- | ---------------------- |
| Base year               | 2023                   |
| Projection horizon      | To 2053                |
| Regions covered         | 16                     |
| Territorial authorities | 67                     |
| Data granularity        | Age and sex breakdowns |

### Population Ageing Highlights

- **65+ population reaches 1 million** by 2029
- **65+ population approaches ~1.5 million** by the early 2050s, representing **~23% of the total population**
- **Highest 65+ proportion:** Thames-Coromandel District (46%)
- **Auckland** projected to reach **2 million residents** around 2033
- **West Coast** is the **only declining region** in New Zealand
- **Natural decrease** (more deaths than births) projected in **47 of 67 TAs** by 2053

## Significance for NZ Seniors Knowledge Base

These projections underscore the accelerating demographic shift toward an older population across nearly all regions of New Zealand. The data is critical for:

- Funding and resource allocation planning for health, social services, and infrastructure
- Workforce and economic participation strategies for older New Zealanders
- Local government long-term planning and ageing-in-place initiatives
- Policy development around retirement income, NZ Superannuation, and aged care provision