# Treasury — He Tirohanga Mokopuna: Long-term Fiscal Statement 2025

Document ID: doc-0082

Publisher: The Treasury

Catalogue publication/document date: 2025-09-24

Physical PDF pages: 84

Original capture/access label: June 2026

Original and primary sources reviewed: 9 October 2026

[Preserved bundled original](/pdfs/2025%20-%20Treasury%20-%20Long-term%20Fiscal%20Statement.pdf)

[Primary publisher source](https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025)

## What the document contributes

Treasury’s sixth Long-term Fiscal Statement examines a 40-year fiscal outlook to 2065 using an accounting model and a model of interacting generations. Its unchanged-policy scenario shows growing pressure from superannuation, healthcare and other spending, with debt approaching 200% of GDP; Treasury explicitly says this is a scenario, not its prediction. The report explores combinations of pension reform, expenditure restraint, taxes, savings and public investment, including distributional effects across generations. Assumptions about interest rates, migration and productivity materially affect the paths. Issued on 24 September 2025, this statement is separate from Treasury’s Long-term Insights Briefing and does not announce enacted pension ages or tax rates.

## Substantive findings

- Treasury’s publisher page gives both signed and issue dates as 24 September 2025. The original contains 84 physical pages and has a September 2025 cover; the page’s July 2026 update is a separate web-maintenance date.

- The sixth statement projects 40 years to 2065. Under unchanged spending/revenue policy, debt approaches 200% of GDP; Treasury says it expects policy action and does not present this as a prediction (printed p. 2).

- The unchanged-policy illustration puts inflation-adjusted spending per person at $18,300 in the 2025 baseline and $35,900 in 2065. These are modelled scenario values, not approved future spending (printed p. 2).

- The report’s unchanged-policy scenario raises NZ Super expenditure from 5.1% of GDP in its baseline to around 8% in 2065, and health expenditure from 7.1% to around 10% (printed p. 3).

- The Long-term Fiscal Model holds policy settings fixed without behavioural feedback; the Overlapping Generations model includes household/firm responses and intergenerational effects. Their projections are complementary analytical approaches (printed pp. 76–78).

- Sensitivity analysis particularly identifies interest-rate and migration assumptions. The statement also assumes near-term deficit consolidation based on the 2025 Budget Update; failing to achieve it worsens the challenge (printed pp. 2–3).

- Pension age/indexation/means-test examples, tax alternatives and spending restraint are policy scenarios. The statement argues for a portfolio of changes and advance signalling, rather than documenting that those options have been enacted (printed pp. 3–4).

## Identity, dates and provenance

The official Treasury page establishes signed/issue date 24 September 2025 and identifies the full report as the official source. It was last updated 30 July 2026 when checked; this is not a new statement date. The full PDF (SHA-256 72b7f5c201b58e5e41971965af83907501248255c547d9b5c91fdebec8be569d) is byte-identical to the bundle. This is He Tirohanga Mokopuna, the Long-term Fiscal Statement, not Te Ara Mokopuna, the separate Long-term Insights Briefing. There are two unnumbered opening pages before printed p. 1.

The June 2026 capture/access label is retained as catalogue history. The October 2026 review does not change the original PDF or turn historical findings into current outcomes.

## Where to check the original

Physical pp. 4–6/printed pp. 2–4 executive summary; physical pp. 11–29/printed pp. 9–27 fiscal challenge; physical pp. 30–46/printed pp. 28–44 alternative paths; physical pp. 47–74/printed pp. 45–72 future choices; physical pp. 75–77/printed pp. 73–75 assumptions; physical pp. 78–80/printed pp. 76–78 model explanation. For example, age 72 by 2065 and GST of 32% are modelled single-lever illustrations, not announcements of future law.

## Evidence limits

Treasury statement issued 24 September 2025; 84 physical pages, projections to 2065 using stated models and assumptions. An unchanged-policy debt trajectory is explicitly not a prediction. Pension ages, tax rates and reform examples are scenarios, not enacted policy or personal retirement advice. Publisher web updates and original June 2026 capture label remain separate from publication and October 2026 review.

## Additional primary sources

- [Official full PDF](https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2025-09/ltfs-2025.pdf)