# NZIER Business of Ageing 2026 — Demographic & Workforce Projections

**Author:** NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)
**Commissioned by:** Office for Seniors (Te Tari Kaumātua)
**Release Date:** 15 April 2026
**Source PDF:** [Office for Seniors](https://www.officeforseniors.govt.nz/assets/documents/our-work/Business-of-Ageing/NZIER-Business-of-Ageing-2026-report.pdf)

---

## Key Demographic & Workforce Data

### Current Workforce Participation (2024)

| Metric                            | Value                                             |
| --------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------- |
| Over-65s in paid employment       | 217,400                                           |
| Share of national workforce (65+) | 7.1%                                              |
| Overall 65+ employment rate       | ~24%                                              |
| 65–69 age group employment rate   | ~44% (up from 10% in 1993)                        |
| Workers aged 80+                  | ~9,000 (projected 389% growth to ~44,000 by 2078) |
| NZ birth rate                     | 1.5 (below replacement rate of 2.1)               |

### Projected Workforce (2074)

| Metric                            | 2024    | 2074            | Change |
| --------------------------------- | ------- | --------------- | ------ |
| Over-65s in paid work             | 217,400 | 477,800         | ×2.2   |
| Share of national workforce (65+) | 7.1%    | 10.9%           | +3.8pp |
| Workers aged 80+ (Stats NZ proj.) | ~9,000  | ~44,000 by 2078 | ×4.9   |

### Economic Contribution Projections

| Component                                             | 2024 (actual) | 2074 (projected) | Multiplier |
| ----------------------------------------------------- | ------------- | ---------------- | ---------- |
| Paid work earnings                                    | $8.7B         | $50.2B           | ×5.7       |
| Self-employment earnings                              | $5.1B         | $29.3B           | ×5.7       |
| Consumer spending by 65+                              | $54.7B        | $357.7B          | ×6.5       |
| Tax contributions                                     | $13.1B        | $80.1B           | ×6.1       |
| Unpaid activity (caregiving, volunteering, household) | >$20B         | $121B–$138B      | ×6–7       |
| Reliance on accumulated assets                        | $14.2B        | $104.7B          | ×7.4       |

---

## Structural Economic Shift

Key quote from NZIER Associate Todd Krieble:

> "Population change is accelerating. The evidence shows that this is not simply a fiscal trend. It is a structural economic shift with long-term implications for labour supply, productivity and demand."

The report confirms that population ageing is:

- **Already reshaping** the labour market and economic activity
- A **long-term structural shift** (not a temporary trend)
- Affecting labour supply, productivity, consumer spending patterns, tax revenue, and long-term growth

---

## Policy Implications for Demographics

1. **Workforce planning:** With NZ birth rate at 1.5 and 80% of employers lacking older worker strategies, there is a significant gap between demographic reality and business practice
2. **Regional variation:** Some regions expected to experience "hyper-ageing" with >30% over 65 by 2048 (Koi Tū Centre data)
3. **Ageing-in-place:** Growing demand for home modifications, accessible housing (only 2% currently accessible), and community support services
4. **Retirement income:** Implications for NZ Super settings, KiwiSaver adequacy, and the growing role of self-employment income

---

## Methodology Notes

- Uses official Stats NZ population and labour force projections
- NZIER's modelling valued income but did **not** address issues affecting potential or performance (e.g., physical/mental wellbeing, succession, retirement, ageism)
- Unpaid work valuation uses replacement cost methodology (market value of equivalent services)

---

## Related KB Files

- `05_Funding_and_Subsidies/2026 - NZIER - Source Brief - Business of Ageing 2026.md`
- `05_Funding_and_Subsidies/2026 - NZIER - Business of Ageing Report.pdf`
- `05_Funding_and_Subsidies/2026 - Beehive - Web Capture - Business of Ageing Report Launch.md`
- `12_Statistics_and_Demographics/2025 - Stats NZ - Working Lives 65+ Getting Longer.md`
- `12_Statistics_and_Demographics/2026 - Stats NZ - Employment Indicators 65+ Trend.md`

---

## Sources

- [NZIER Media Release](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/population-ageing-is-reshaping-new-zealands-economy-now) (accessed 8 Jun 2026)
- [RNZ Coverage](https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/592453/paid-work-by-over-65s-worth-nearly-9-billion-a-year-study) (accessed 8 Jun 2026)
- [1News Coverage](https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/04/18/kiwis-over-65-contributing-more-than-34m-a-year-to-the-economy/) (accessed 8 Jun 2026)
- [B2B News — Employer Strategy Gap](https://b2bnews.co.nz/news/80-percent-of-nz-employers-lack-older-worker-strategy-despite-14b-contribution/) (accessed 8 Jun 2026)
- [Newsroom — Hyper-ageing Analysis](https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/05/07/how-we-could-stop-treating-nzs-ageing-population-as-a-burden/) (accessed 8 Jun 2026)

---

**Curated:** 8 June 2026
**Status:** Supplementary capture (demographic/workforce data from Business of Ageing 2026 report)