# NZIER / Office for Seniors — Business of Ageing: 2026 Update Document ID: doc-0088 Publisher: Office for Seniors Catalogue publication/document date: 2026-04-15 Physical PDF pages: 23 Original capture/access label: June 2026 Original and primary sources reviewed: 9 October 2026 [Preserved bundled original](/pdfs/2026%20-%20NZIER%20-%20Business%20of%20Ageing%20Report.pdf) [Primary publisher source](https://www.officeforseniors.govt.nz/assets/documents/our-work/Business-of-Ageing/NZIER-Business-of-Ageing-2026-report.pdf) ## What the document contributes Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the economic contribution of people aged 65 and over using a 2024 base and a 50-year outlook to 2074. It separates wages, self-employment, government transfers, asset drawdown, taxes, unpaid activity and spending. Older-worker numbers grow while the group’s total participation rate falls as the 80+ population expands. Unpaid-work values use older time-use data and proxy wages; expenditure uses household-type proxies. A corrected financial-asset base changes comparability with the previous report. Published publicly on 15 April 2026, the report contains conflicting captions/headings, so the companion identifies the precise tables and narrative used for each estimate. ## Substantive findings - The 23-page original is authored by Tom Dunn, quality approved by Todd Krieble, and dated April 2026. The official Beehive release establishes public announcement on 15 April 2026; the 2024 baseline is a separate date (physical pp. 1, 3). - Table 1 uses median population projections with a 30 June 2024 base: 874,000 people aged 65+ in 2024 rising to 2,128,300 in 2074; the 80+ group rises from 208,300 to 854,200 (printed p. 2). - Tables 2–3 project the older labour force from 217,400 in 2024 to 477,800 in 2074. Its national share rises from 7.1% to 10.9%, while the 65+ participation rate falls from 24.87% to 22.45%; the 2024 rate for ages 65–69 is 48.56% (printed pp. 3–6). - The model treats wages/salaries ($8.7 billion in 2024) and self-employment ($5.1 billion) separately, projecting $50.2 billion and $29.3 billion respectively in 2074, in constant 2024 dollars. They should not be conflated with total older-person income (printed p. 6). - Table 5 values unpaid activity at $19.1–$21.4 billion in 2024 and $121.0–$138.3 billion in 2074 under alternative wage assumptions. Hours come from the 2009–10 Time Use Survey; this is imputed value, not unpaid carers’ cash earnings (printed p. 8). - Table 4 projects all tax including assumed GST on a 4% financial-asset drawdown from $14.9 billion in 2024 to $93.7 billion in 2074. The stated comparison excluding that drawdown GST is $13.1 billion to $80.1 billion; the financial-asset measure corrects the prior update (printed pp. 7–8). - The spending narrative projects $54.7 billion in 2024 to $357.7 billion in 2074, using household-type proxies and constant 2024 dollars. Proxy housing costs may misrepresent actual older cohorts; the original’s $290/$296 billion spending headings/caption and $86 billion tax heading conflict with its detailed totals (printed pp. 7, 9–10). ## Identity, dates and provenance The April 2026 cover and Tom Dunn authorship are verified in the original; 15 April is the official Beehive public release date. The current Office for Seniors PDF is byte-identical to the bundle (SHA-256 ca8135570f1cddf30a914a024a16fc9fad114c3515005a976ce712b8409f540e). This is a distinct successor to doc-0073’s 2023 update, published in August 2024. It uses a 2024 base and extends to 2074; the earlier series uses different reference years and drawdown calculations. The June 2026 capture/access label is retained as catalogue history. The October 2026 review does not change the original PDF or turn historical findings into current outcomes. ## Where to check the original Physical p. 2 is blank; physical p. 3 identifies authorship; physical pp. 4–5 are key points; physical p. 7 starts printed p. 1. Table 1 physical p. 8; Tables 2–3 physical pp. 9–12; income and drawdown physical pp. 12–13; tax Table 4 physical pp. 13–14; unpaid-work Table 5 physical p. 14; spending methods and Tables 6–7 physical pp. 15–16. The tax section heading says $86 billion, whereas Table 4/narrative say $93.7 billion including drawdown GST ($80.1 billion excluding). Spending heading/caption say over $290 billion/around $296 billion, while key points and narrative say $357.7 billion. The conclusion’s 7.7% workforce share is the male rate, while the all-person text gives 7.1%. No corrected edition was verified; cited totals are identified rather than these conflicts being silently repaired. ## Evidence limits April 2026 NZIER model publicly announced 15 April; 23 physical pages, 2024 baseline and projections to 2074 in constant 2024 dollars. Forecasts, proxy spending and imputed unpaid-work values are not observed future outcomes or cash earnings. GST on drawdown corrects the previous asset measure. Conflicting captions/headings and the conclusion’s workforce share are disclosed; labelled tables/narrative and denominators are retained. Original June 2026 capture label preserved. ## Additional primary sources - [Official public release (15 April 2026)](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/report-shows-economic-contribution-seniors) - [Business of Ageing series](https://www.osc.govt.nz/our-work/business-of-ageing-research)