# National Population Projections (2024(base)–2078) ## Stats NZ | Tatauranga Aotearoa **Source:** [https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-projections-2024base2078/](https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-projections-2024base2078/) **Capture Date:** 2026-06-07 --- ## Overview Stats NZ produces national population projections every two to three years, providing estimates of future population size and structure based on different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. The **2024(base)–2078** projections (released in 2025) update the previous series and show continued population growth and — most importantly for aged care planning — a rapidly ageing population. All figures below are for the **projected resident population of New Zealand**. --- ## Key Projections: Ageing Population New Zealand's population is ageing across all projection scenarios. The key trends for older age groups are: ### Population Aged 65+ (Retirement Age) | Measure | 2024 (Base) | 2051 (Low Series) | 2051 (Mid Series) | 2051 (High Series) | | ---------------------------------- | ------------ | ----------------- | ----------------- | ------------------ | | **Number** | 0.87 million | 1.44 million | 1.50 million | 1.55 million | | **Percentage of total population** | 17% | 21% | 22% | 24% | - From 2024 to 2051, the number of people aged 65+ increases by **66–78%**. - As a share of total population, 65+ rises from roughly **1 in 6 to 1 in 5 (or more)**. ### Population Aged 85+ (Oldest Old — High Health and Care Needs) | Measure | 2024 (Base) | 2051 (Low Series) | 2051 (Mid Series) | 2051 (High Series) | | ---------- | ----------- | ----------------- | ----------------- | ------------------ | | **Number** | 95,000 | 275,000 | 298,000 | 322,000 | - The 85+ population is projected to **more than triple** (increase by 190–240%) by 2051. - This group has the highest per-person need for health services, residential care, home support, and disability services. - By the late 2040s, there will be more people aged 85+ than there are people aged 65+ today. ### Population Aged 100+ (Centenarians) - Projected to grow from approximately 1,200 in 2024 to between **5,400 and 7,200** by 2051 — a 4- to 6-fold increase. --- ## Median Age Rising | Measure | 2024 | 2051 (Mid) | Trend | | ---------------------- | ---- | ---------- | -------------------------------------- | | **Median age (years)** | 38.3 | 42.0–44.0 | Rising steadily as the population ages | - The median age was 37.4 in 2020 and is projected to reach **40+ by the early 2030s**. - In all projection scenarios, the population continues to get older as the large baby-boom cohort ages into older age groups and is replaced by smaller cohorts. --- ## Dependency Ratio The **dependency ratio** measures the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15–64 (the traditional "working age" population). It is a key indicator of economic support pressure. | Measure | 2024 | 2051 (Mid) | 2051 (Range Across Series) | | ----------------------------------------------------- | ---- | ---------- | -------------------------- | | **Old-age dependency ratio (65+ per 100 aged 15–64)** | 25 | 33 | 33–38 | - In 2024, there were about **25 people aged 65+ for every 100 working-age people**. - By 2051, this is projected to rise to **33–38 people aged 65+ per 100 working-age people** — a 32–52% increase. - This means fewer working-age people per older person, with implications for: - Tax revenue and spending on NZ Superannuation - Health and disability workforce supply - Aged residential care capacity - Informal care supply (fewer family carers available) --- ## Total Population Projections (All Ages) | Measure | 2024 (Base) | 2051 (Mid) | 2078 (Mid) | | -------------------- | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ | | **Total population** | 5.34 million | 6.46 million | ~7.0 million | - Population continues to grow across all projection series, but at a slower rate than in recent decades. - Growth is driven primarily by **net migration** (rather than natural increase). - Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to turn negative in the 2040s or 2050s as deaths exceed births — meaning all future population growth depends on net migration. --- ## The "Baby Boom" Echo The large cohorts born in the 1950s–1970s (baby boomers) are moving through the age structure: - In the 2020s and 2030s, this group is aged 55–85+ — driving the rapid growth in the 65+ age group. - By the 2050s, the baby boomers will have moved into the 85+ group, contributing to the tripling of the oldest-old population. - The "baby bust" generations (smaller cohorts born from the 1970s onward) mean there will be proportionally fewer younger people to support the growing older population. --- ## Life Expectancy | Measure | 2024 | 2051 (Mid) | Change | | -------------------------------------- | ---------- | ---------- | ---------- | | **Male life expectancy at birth** | 80.5 years | 83.3 years | +2.8 years | | **Female life expectancy at birth** | 84.0 years | 86.5 years | +2.5 years | | **Life expectancy at age 65 (male)** | 19.4 years | 21.2 years | +1.8 years | | **Life expectancy at age 65 (female)** | 21.9 years | 23.6 years | +1.7 years | - People are living longer, and this contributes to the growth of the older population, especially the 85+ group. - However, there remain persistent gaps in life expectancy between ethnic groups — Māori and Pasifika life expectancy is several years lower than the national average. --- ## Implications for Aged Care and Health Services The projected demographic changes will have profound implications: ### 1. Residential Care Demand - With the 85+ population tripling by 2051, the demand for aged residential care (rest home, hospital, dementia, psychogeriatric) will increase substantially. - Current residential care capacity will need to expand significantly or be supplemented by higher levels of home-based support. ### 2. Home and Community Support - The 65+ population growing by 60–80% will increase demand for home support services (personal care, home help, carer support, day programmes). - There will be strong policy pressure to "age in place" and delay residential care entry. ### 3. Dementia Prevalence - As the population ages, the number of people with dementia is projected to more than triple (from ~70,000 today to over 170,000 by 2050). - This matches the projected tripling of the 85+ population, the age group with the highest dementia prevalence. ### 4. Workforce - The health and disability workforce will need to grow substantially to meet demand, at the same time as the ratio of working-age to older people is declining. - Increased reliance on migrant workers in health and aged care is likely. ### 5. Informal / Family Care - With smaller family sizes and more women in the workforce, the supply of informal (unpaid) family carers is likely to shrink relative to the population needing care. - Formal care services (home support, residential care) will need to fill the gap. ### 6. NZ Superannuation and Public Finances - The rising old-age dependency ratio means fewer workers per retiree, putting pressure on the tax base that funds NZ Superannuation and health services. - Policy responses may include raising the age of eligibility, increasing taxes, or adjusting benefit levels. --- ## Projection Methodology - **Base population:** Estimated resident population at 30 June 2024. - **Projection horizon:** 2024 to 2078 (54 years). - **Three main series** (based on varying assumptions): - **Low series:** Lower fertility, lower migration, higher mortality - **Mid series (most commonly used):** Medium fertility, medium migration, medium mortality - **High series:** Higher fertility, higher migration, lower mortality - **Additional sub-series** vary within these bounds. - Projections are not forecasts — they show what would happen under given assumptions. Actual outcomes will depend on policy, economic conditions, and social trends. --- ## Key Comparisons (Selected Years) | Age Group | 2024 | 2034 | 2044 | 2051 (Mid) | 2078 (Mid) | | -------------------- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ---------- | ---------- | | **65+ (number)** | 0.87M | 1.15M | 1.37M | 1.50M | 1.70M | | **65+ (% of total)** | 17% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 23% | | **85+ (number)** | 95K | 130K | 203K | 298K | 396K | | **85+ (% of total)** | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | | **Median age** | 38.3 | 40.0 | 41.5 | 43.0 | 44.0 | | **Dependency ratio** | 25 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | --- ## Summary of Key Facts | Topic | Detail | | ---------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **65+ population (2024)** | 0.87 million (17% of total) | | **65+ population (2051)** | 1.44–1.55 million (21–24% of total) | | **85+ population (2024)** | 95,000 | | **85+ population (2051)** | 275,000–322,000 (more than triples) | | **Median age (2024 → 2051)** | 38.3 → 42–44 years | | **Dependency ratio (2024 → 2051)** | 25 → 33–38 (per 100 working-age) | | **Total population (2024 → 2051)** | 5.34M → ~6.46M (mid series) | | **Life expectancy (2051)** | 83.3 (male), 86.5 (female) | | **Key driver** | Baby boomers ageing into 65+ and 85+ groups | | **Implications** | Increased demand for residential care, home support, dementia services, and healthcare workforce; reduced informal care supply; fiscal pressure |