# 2026 Provider Comparison Matrix — Financial, Operational, and Care Risk | Field | Detail | | ------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Type** | Comparison matrix — detailed cross-provider analysis across financial, operational, and care quality dimensions | | **Status** | Reference — synthesised from existing KB data, annual reports, and sector reports | | **Date** | June 2026 | | **Classification** | Knowledge Base — Market and Industry Reports | --- ## Important Notice > ⚠️ This matrix synthesises data from provider annual reports, sector analysis documents, and audit intelligence captured in this Knowledge Base. All figures should be verified against the most recent published reports before use. Where exact figures are not available from captured sources, ranges and estimates are provided and marked accordingly. --- ## 1. Ownership Structure | Provider | Ownership Model | Listed | Major Shareholders / Parent | Date of Last Ownership Change | | ---------------------- | ------------------------ | ------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | Public company (NZX/ASX) | RYM | Widely held — institutional investors (NZ, AU, offshore). No controlling shareholder. | Founded 1984 — no change | | **Summerset Group** | Public company (NZX) | SUM | Widely held — institutional investors. Significant index fund holdings. | Founded 1995 — no change | | **Metlifecare** | Private company | Delisted 2022 | Consortium: KKR & Alan MacKenzie. Taken private via scheme of arrangement. | 2022 — taken private | | **Arvida Group** | Public company (NZX) | ARV | Widely held — institutional and retail. Smaller market cap than Ryman/Summerset. | Founded 2009 — no change | | **Oceania Healthcare** | Public company (NZX) | OCA | Widely held — institutional and retail. | Founded 2006 — no change | | **Radius Care** | Public company (NZX) | RAD | Widely held — smaller capitalisation. Higher retail investor proportion. | Founded 2000 — no change | | **Bupa NZ** | Private (subsidiary) | N/A | Bupa Group (UK-headquartered global healthcare). NZ operations part of Bupa Asia Pacific. | N/A — long-term Bupa subsidiary | | **Heritage Lifecare** | Private (PE-owned) | N/A | HRL Morrison & Co (infrastructure investment manager, NZ). | 2018 — acquired by Morrison & Co | --- ## 2. Operational Scale | Provider | Villages (NZ) | Care Homes / Facilities | Total Units / Beds (approx.) | Care Beds (approx.) | Geographic Spread | Employee / Staff (approx.) | | ---------------------- | --------------- | ----------------------------- | ---------------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | ~33 NZ + ~10 AU | Care centres in all villages | ~12,000+ units (NZ + AU) | ~4,500+ (NZ + AU) | National (NZ) + Victoria/NSW (AU) | ~5,500+ | | **Summerset Group** | 38+ | Care centres in most villages | ~7,000+ units | ~2,500+ | National — strong in upper North Island | ~3,500+ | | **Metlifecare** | ~20+ | Care centres in many villages | ~3,500+ units | ~1,000+ | Upper North Island focus (Auckland (10+), BOP, Waikato) | ~1,800+ | | **Arvida Group** | ~30 | Care in many communities | ~4,000+ units | ~1,200+ | National — multiple small-medium sites | ~2,000+ | | **Oceania Healthcare** | ~25+ | Strong care component | ~3,000+ units | ~1,800+ care beds | Auckland-heavy, with regional presence | ~2,500+ | | **Radius Care** | 0 (ARC only) | ~20 facilities | 0 village units | ~1,500+ beds | Waikato/Auckland concentrated | ~1,800+ | | **Bupa NZ** | ~35 | ~40 care homes | ~5,000+ combined units | ~3,000+ care beds | National — broadest geographic spread | ~5,000+ | | **Heritage Lifecare** | Limited | ~25+ facilities | ~500+ village units | ~2,000+ beds | National — strong South Island | ~2,000+ | ### Geographic Concentration Analysis | Region | Ryman | Summerset | Metlifecare | Arvida | Oceania | Radius | Bupa NZ | Heritage | Total Market | | ------------------- | ------------ | ------------ | -------------- | ------------ | -------------- | ----------------- | ------------ | ------------ | ------------------------- | | **Auckland** | Strong (14+) | Strong (12+) | Dominant (10+) | Strong (8+) | Dominant (10+) | Strong (5+) | Strong (12+) | Strong (5+) | **Highest concentration** | | **Waikato** | Present (2+) | Present (3+) | Present (2+) | Present (3+) | Present (2+) | **Dominant (5+)** | Strong (4+) | Present (3+) | Radius dominant | | **Bay of Plenty** | Present (3+) | Present (3+) | Present (3+) | Present (3+) | Present (3+) | Present (2+) | Present (2+) | Present (2+) | Even spread | | **Wellington** | Present (3+) | Present (3+) | Present (2+) | Present (2+) | Present (3+) | Minimal | Present (4+) | Present (2+) | Moderate | | **Canterbury** | Strong (5+) | Present (4+) | Present (1+) | Strong (5+) | Present (3+) | Present (2+) | Present (3+) | Strong (4+) | Strong | | **Otago/Southland** | Present (2+) | Present (2+) | Minimal | Present (2+) | Minimal | Minimal | Present (2+) | Present (2+) | Limited | | **Other regions** | Limited | Limited | Limited | Present | Limited | Limited | Present | Present | Fragmented | --- ## 3. Revenue and Financial Trends | Provider | Latest Reported Revenue | Revenue Trend | EBITDA Margin (approx.) | Net Debt / EBITDA | Key Financial Indicator | | ---------------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | -------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | ~$600M+ (FY2024) | Growing — development-driven | ~35-40% (EBITDA margin) | Moderate-high (development debt) | Underlying profit stable; construction costs squeezing margins | | **Summerset Group** | ~$400M+ (FY2024) | Strong growth — fastest development | ~35-40% | Moderate (managed leverage) | Strong ORA sales growth; investments in new villages | | **Metlifecare** | ~$250M+ (FY2025 est.) | Stable (private — limited data) | ~30-35% (pre-takeover) | Higher (PE debt structure) | Limited public data post-takeover | | **Arvida Group** | ~$200M+ (FY2024) | Moderate growth | ~30-35% | Higher — elevated gearing | Property market softness affecting ORA margins | | **Oceania Healthcare** | ~$200M+ (FY2024) | Moderate growth | ~25-30% | Higher | Debt levels elevated; sales recovery slower than expected | | **Radius Care** | ~$150M+ (FY2025) | Flat/declining (real terms) | ~15-20% (lowest) | **Highest — covenant risk** | **Funding model under greatest pressure** | | **Bupa NZ** | ~$400M+ (FY2025 est.) | Growing with sector | N/A (private — limited data) | N/A (global parent) | Effective tax rate ~4% per E tū/CICTAR report | | **Heritage Lifecare** | ~$200M+ (FY2025 est.) | Stable | ~20-25% | Moderate (PE structure) | Limited public financial data | ### Revenue Trend Commentary | Provider | Revenue Outlook | Key Drivers | Risk Factors | | ---------------------- | --------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | Positive long-term | NZ ageing demographics, development pipeline, AU expansion | Construction costs, sales cycle length | | **Summerset Group** | Strong positive | Fastest pipeline, strong brand, demographic tailwinds | Interest rates, land costs | | **Metlifecare** | Stable | Established portfolio, no major expansion | Private equity debt costs, limited development | | **Arvida Group** | Moderate | Portfolio growth, demographic demand | Gearing, competition from larger players | | **Oceania Healthcare** | Moderate | Care demand, property portfolio | Debt levels, market share pressure | | **Radius Care** | **Negative pressure** | ARC demand (needs-based) | **Funding model unsustainable — existential risk** | | **Bupa NZ** | Stable-positive | Scale, brand, technology investment | Global restructuring risk, funding adequacy | | **Heritage Lifecare** | Stable | ARC demand | PE ownership horizon, funding reform | --- ## 4. Bed/Unit Counts and Occupancy | Provider | Independent Living Units | Care Beds (Rest Home) | Care Beds (Hospital) | Dementia Beds | Total Beds | Occupancy Rate (Care) | Occupancy Trend | | ---------------------- | ------------------------ | --------------------- | -------------------- | ------------- | ----------------- | --------------------- | -------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | ~7,500+ | ~2,500+ | ~1,200+ | ~800+ | ~4,500+ care beds | ~90-95% | Stable — high demand | | **Summerset Group** | ~4,500+ | ~1,400+ | ~700+ | ~400+ | ~2,500+ care beds | ~90-95% | Stable — high demand | | **Metlifecare** | ~2,500+ | ~600+ | ~250+ | ~150+ | ~1,000+ care beds | ~90% | Stable | | **Arvida Group** | ~2,800+ | ~700+ | ~300+ | ~200+ | ~1,200+ care beds | ~88-92% | Slight softening | | **Oceania Healthcare** | ~1,200+ | ~1,000+ | ~500+ | ~300+ | ~1,800+ care beds | ~88-92% | Slight softening | | **Radius Care** | 0 | ~800+ | ~500+ | ~200+ | ~1,500+ beds | ~85-90% | **Under pressure** | | **Bupa NZ** | ~2,000+ | ~1,800+ | ~800+ | ~400+ | ~3,000+ care beds | ~90% | Stable | | **Heritage Lifecare** | ~500+ | ~1,200+ | ~500+ | ~300+ | ~2,000+ beds | ~85-90% | Under pressure | _Note: Bed counts are approximate based on available data. Exact figures should be verified against individual provider annual reports._ --- ## 5. Staffing Ratios and Workforce | Provider | RN to Resident Ratio (approx.) | Total Staff | Staff Turnover (est.) | Key Workforce Issues | | ---------------------- | ------------------------------------------ | ----------- | ------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | ~1 RN : 15-20 residents (varies by acuity) | ~5,500+ | Moderate (sector average) | RN shortage, care worker retention, competitive Auckland market | | **Summerset Group** | ~1 RN : 15-20 residents | ~3,500+ | Moderate | RN shortage, wage pressure, competition from DHB/Health NZ | | **Metlifecare** | ~1 RN : 15-20 residents | ~1,800+ | Moderate | RN recruitment (upper NI focus) | | **Arvida Group** | ~1 RN : 18-25 residents (higher ratio) | ~2,000+ | Moderate-high | Staffing documentation CARs noted; workforce pressure | | **Oceania Healthcare** | ~1 RN : 15-20 residents | ~2,500+ | Moderate-high | Staffing CARs at multiple facilities; workforce challenges | | **Radius Care** | ~1 RN : 20-30 residents (highest ratio) | ~1,800+ | **High** | **Critical RN shortage** — recurring staffing CARs; lowest staffing levels | | **Bupa NZ** | ~1 RN : 15-18 residents | ~5,000+ | Moderate | DEWS technology partially offsets; workforce shortages | | **Heritage Lifecare** | ~1 RN : 18-25 residents | ~2,000+ | Moderate-high | Staffing CARs at multiple facilities; RN recruitment challenges | ### Staffing Observations - **Sector-wide** RN shortage is the most critical workforce issue affecting all providers - **Radius Care** is the most severely affected, with recurring staffing-related corrective actions - **Ryman and Summerset** have stronger staffing outcomes, partly due to larger scale and better remuneration - **Bupa** has invested in technology (DEWS, Nexus AI) to partially mitigate workforce gaps - **Regional disparities** — rural and provincial facilities have more acute staffing shortages than urban - **Immigration policy** is a key lever — all providers rely on migrant care workers and RNs --- ## 6. Audit Outcomes and Care Quality | Provider | Average Cert Period | Facilities Tracked | Avg CARs per Audit | High Risk CARs | Key Quality Themes | | ---------------------- | ----------------------- | ------------------ | ------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | 4.0 years (strongest) | 5 facilities | 2.4 | None identified | Documentation, medication management — low risk | | **Summerset Group** | 3.8 years | 5 facilities | 2.8 | Moderate-High at Karaka (restraint, staffing) | Staffing, infection control, care planning — Karaka outlier | | **Metlifecare** | 4.0 years | 2 facilities | 1.5 | None | Food safety, activities — minor issues | | **Arvida Group** | 3.0 years | 2 facilities | 3.5 | None | Clinical governance, staffing documentation — low-moderate | | **Oceania Healthcare** | 3.4 years | 5 facilities | 3.2 | Moderate at Te Irirangi (cultural safety, clinical) | Clinical care gaps, cultural safety, staffing | | **Radius Care** | **2.6 years (weakest)** | 5 facilities | 4.0 | **Moderate-High recurring** (restraint, staffing, Fulton) | **Restraint, staffing ratios, complaints, medication** | | **Bupa NZ** | 3.6 years | 5 facilities | 2.4 | Moderate at Ross Home (pain, wound care) | Pain management, wound care, infection control | | **Heritage Lifecare** | 3.0 years | 2 facilities | 3.5 | None | Staffing, restraint, care plans | ### Audit Summary **Strongest performers:** Ryman Healthcare, Metlifecare — both consistently achieve 4-year certification with low corrective action counts. **Mid-tier performers:** Summerset Group (strong but with Karaka outlier), Bupa NZ (consistent moderate performance), Oceania Healthcare (mixed results). **Weakest performers:** Radius Care — the only provider with a sustained pattern of moderate-high risk corrective actions, 2-year certifications, and recurring staffing and restraint issues. **Insufficient data for ranking:** Heritage Lifecare (limited facilities tracked). --- ## 7. Geographic Concentration (HHI Analysis) | Provider | HHI Score (approx.) | Concentration Level | Most Concentrated Region | Dependency Risk | | ---------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | ~0.25 | Low | Auckland (~35% of villages) | Low — national coverage + AU | | **Summerset Group** | ~0.30 | Low | Auckland (~32%) | Low — national coverage | | **Metlifecare** | ~0.50 | **High** | Auckland (~50%) | **High** — very Auckland-dependent | | **Arvida Group** | ~0.25 | Low | Auckland (~27%) | Low-moderate | | **Oceania Healthcare** | ~0.40 | **High** | Auckland (~40%) | **High** — Auckland-heavy | | **Radius Care** | ~0.50 | **High** | Waikato (~25%) + Auckland (~25%) | **High** — 2-region dependent | | **Bupa NZ** | ~0.25 | Low | Auckland (~30%) | Low — national coverage | | **Heritage Lifecare** | ~0.30 | Low | Canterbury (~20%) + Auckland (~20%) | Low-moderate | --- ## 8. Regulatory Risk Assessment | Risk Factor | Ryman | Summerset | Metlifecare | Arvida | Oceania | Radius | Bupa NZ | Heritage | | --------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- | ----------- | -------- | -------- | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ | | **ARC Funding Reform** | Medium | Medium | Low | **High** | **High** | **Critical** | **Critical** | **Critical** | | **RV Act Reform (ORA/DMF)** | **High** | **High** | **High** | **High** | **High** | Low | **High** | Low | | **Immigration / Workforce** | **High** | **High** | Medium | **High** | **High** | **High** | **High** | **High** | | **HealthCERT Compliance** | Low | Low | Low | Medium | Medium | **Critical** | Low | Medium | | **PE / Foreign Ownership** | None | None | Medium | None | None | None | **High** | Medium | | **Construction / Consent** | Medium | Medium | Low | Low | Low | None | Low | None | | **Total Regulatory Risk** | **Medium-High** | **Medium-High** | **Medium** | **High** | **High** | **Critical** | **Critical** | **Critical** | ### Regulatory Risk Commentary **ARC Funding Reform (most critical sector-wide risk):** - The Sapere Review (2024) warns of 12,000 bed shortage by 2032 without increased build rates - Funding model has not been substantially revised since 2000 - Radius Care, Bupa NZ, Heritage Lifecare (ARC-heavy) are most exposed - Retirement village operators (Ryman, Summerset, Metlifecare) have ORA revenue to buffer care funding gaps - The case-mix funding model (in development) could significantly change revenue profiles **Retirement Villages Act Reform:** - Under active review; Consumer NZ and RVR campaigning for stronger ORA protections - NZ First pushing for property title reform (residents own the land) - DMF structure, unfair terms, and disclosure requirements under scrutiny - All major RV operators (Ryman, Summerset, Metlifecare, Arvida, Oceania, Bupa) exposed - ARC-only providers (Radius, Heritage) less directly affected **Immigration/Workforce:** - Universal risk across all providers - Care workforce heavily reliant on migrant workers - Government immigration settings directly affect staffing availability - Pay equity settlements have increased costs but not fully funded --- ## 9. Composite Risk Summary | Provider | Financial Risk | Care Quality Risk | Regulatory Risk | Market/Competition Risk | **Overall Risk Rating** | | ---------------------- | ----------------- | ----------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------------- | | **Ryman Healthcare** | Low-Moderate | Low | Medium-High | Low (market leader) | **Low-Moderate** | | **Summerset Group** | Low-Moderate | Low-Moderate | Medium-High | Low (fastest growth) | **Low-Moderate** | | **Metlifecare** | Moderate (PE) | Low | Medium | Medium (no growth) | **Moderate** | | **Arvida Group** | Moderate-High | Low-Moderate | High | Moderate (scale) | **Moderate-High** | | **Oceania Healthcare** | Moderate-High | Moderate | High | Moderate-High | **High** | | **Radius Care** | **Critical** | **Critical** | **Critical** | High (ARC-only) | **Critical** | | **Bupa NZ** | Moderate (global) | Low-Moderate | **Critical** | Moderate | **High** | | **Heritage Lifecare** | Moderate (PE) | Moderate | **Critical** | Moderate (ARC-only) | **High** | --- ## 10. Key Findings and Implications ### For Campaigners and Advocates | Finding | Implication | | --------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | **Radius Care is the most vulnerable provider** | If sector funding worsens, Radius is first at risk of failure — residents and families need protection planning | | **Ryman and Summerset dominate new supply** | Their development decisions shape sector capacity — slowing development = worsening bed shortage | | **Bupa faces global parent risk** | Bupa Group could restructure or sell NZ operations — regulatory transition planning needed | | **Private equity ownership reduces transparency** | Metlifecare and Heritage have limited public data — makes accountability harder | | **ARC funding reform is the critical policy lever** | All ARC-heavy providers (Radius, Bupa, Heritage, Oceania) are exposed — reform outcomes determine sector viability | | **Care quality varies significantly** | Not all providers deliver the same standard — consumer choice and advocacy are essential | ### For Policy Makers | Finding | Implication | | --------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Aged care funding model is unsustainable** | Sapere Review confirms 12,000 bed gap by 2032 without reform | | **Workforce crisis affects all providers** | Immigration policy and pay equity are the most impactful levers | | **Concentration risk in Auckland** | Providers over-exposed to Auckland property market and labour market | | **Private equity model raises questions** | Long-term commitment to NZ aged care uncertain for PE-owned providers | | **Regulatory reform (RV Act, PPPR Act) is complex** | Multiple reviews running simultaneously — coordination needed | --- ## Data Sources | Source | Location | Type | | ---------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------- | | Ryman Healthcare Financial Statements (FY2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Ryman Healthcare - Financial Statements.pdf` | PDF | | Summerset Annual Report (FY2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Summerset - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Metlifecare Annual Report (FY2025) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Metlifecare - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Arvida Annual Report (FY2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2024 - Arvida - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Oceania Healthcare Annual Report (FY2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2024 - Oceania Healthcare - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Radius Care Annual Report (FY2025) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Radius Care - Annual Report FY25.pdf` | PDF | | Radius Care Annual Report (FY2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2024 - Radius Care - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Bupa Care Services NZ Annual Report (FY2025) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Bupa Care Services NZ - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | Heritage Lifecare Annual Report (FY2025) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - Heritage Lifecare - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | RVA Annual Report (2024) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2024 - RVA - Annual Report.pdf` | PDF | | NZNO Care in Crisis Report (2025) | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2025 - NZNO - Care in Crisis Aged Care Staffing Report.pdf` | PDF | | Sapere Aged Care Funding Review (2024) | `00_KNOWLEDGE_BASE_INDEX.md` (NZ-008) | PDF | | NZIER ARC Equity Analysis (2022) | `00_KNOWLEDGE_BASE_INDEX.md` (NZ-006) | PDF | | E tū/CICTAR Tax Report (2025) | `00_KNOWLEDGE_BASE_INDEX.md` (NZ-011) | PDF | | Rest Home Audit Tracker | `02 Aged Residential Care/Facility Audit Intelligence/2026 Tracker - Rest Home Audit Reports and Corrective Actions.md` | Markdown | | Ryman Care Options Guide | `14_Provider_Brochures/2026 - Ryman Healthcare - Web Capture - Care Options Guide.md` | Markdown | | Summerset Living Options | `14_Provider_Brochures/2026 - Summerset - Web Capture - Retirement Living Options.md` | Markdown | | Bupa NZ Care Home Services | `14_Provider_Brochures/2026 - Bupa NZ - Web Capture - Care Home Services.md` | Markdown | | Provider Market Refresh Tracker | `11_Market_and_Industry_Reports/2026 Provider Market Refresh Tracker.md` | Markdown | --- ## Cross-References | File | Relevance | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | | `2026 Provider Market Refresh Tracker.md` | Cross-reference data, detailed provider profiles | | `2026 Tracker - Rest Home Audit Reports and Corrective Actions.md` (Folder 02) | Facility-level audit outcomes | | `2026 Facility Audit Intelligence Index.md` (Folder 02) | Audit interpretation framework | | `2026 Party Position Matrix - Aged Residential Care.md` (Folder 16) | Political context for regulatory risks | | `2026 Party Position Matrix - Retirement Villages and ORAs.md` (Folder 16) | RV Act reform political positions | | `00_KNOWLEDGE_BASE_INDEX.md` | Full PDF inventory with provider and sector reports | | `05_Funding_and_Subsidies/2026 - NZIER - Source Brief - Business of Ageing 2026.md` | Sector economic outlook | --- _Part of the NZ Seniors Knowledge Base — Market and Industry Reports layer_ _Last updated: June 2026_