# Findings Report — Prompt B3-9: OECD NZ Super Report — Government Response Check **Date of Run:** 11 June 2026 10:00 **Prompt:** B3-9 | OECD NZ Super Report — Government Response Check **Category:** Economics --- ## What Was Searched 1. `OECD "New Zealand" superannuation OR pension OR "ageing" report 2026 government response OR Willis OR Costello site:treasury.govt.nz OR site:beehive.govt.nz` 2. `OECD New Zealand pension age life expectancy report May 2026` 3. `"OECD" "New Zealand" superannuation reform response 2026` 4. `Nicola Willis superannuation OECD report response June 2026` 5. `"OECD" "New Zealand" election 2026 superannuation age policy Labour National ACT` 6. `OECD "New Zealand" superannuation 2026 report Costello seniors minister response` 7. `site:beehive.govt.nz OECD economic survey New Zealand 2026 superannuation response` 8. `Luxon confirmed National campaign raising superannuation age 67 2026 election` 9. `"He Tirohanga Mokopuna" 2025 Treasury long-term fiscal superannuation ageing` --- ## Key Findings ### 1. The OECD Report (7 May 2026) The OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2026 was launched at Treasury on 7 May 2026. Key superannuation/ageing recommendations: **Superannuation Reform:** - **Link pension eligibility age to life expectancy** with a maximum age of 69 - **Means-test super** for the top 10% of earners - **Tax reform**: switch from current Taxed-Taxed-Exempt (TTE) to Exempt-Exempt-Taxed (EET) system (aligns with 31/38 OECD countries) - **KiwiSaver expansion**: increase contribution rates, restrict first-home withdrawals **Fiscal Warning:** - Ageing will push NZ's health and pension costs up ~5% of GDP by 2060 - Without reforms, public debt on **"an unsustainable path"** toward ~200% of GDP - Health and long-term care spending pressures intensify as NZ's population ages **Equity Considerations:** - A simple age increase could be regressive for **Māori and Pasifika** who have shorter average life expectancy - Transitional arrangements and redistribution needed for vulnerable groups - Support for older workers in physically demanding roles ### 2. Government Response — Finance Minister Nicola Willis **At the OECD/Treasury launch (7 May 2026):** - No plans to raise eligibility age before 2026 election - Rejected tax changes: "We are trying to get the books back in balance so radical tax reforms that require a deficit on the government books are not something we are exploring right now" **On Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking Breakfast (May 2026):** - **"We are going to have to do something. If you're sensible, you listen to these facts."** - Demographic breakdown: 1960s: 7 workers per pensioner → today: 4 → 2065: 2 - Super spending currently ~16% of every tax dollar → projected >20% - **"They don't need to be as dramatic as the OECD suggests, but some adjustments will be needed"** - Every dollar on super is a dollar not available for education, health, infrastructure **In The Post (Tom Pullar-Strecker):** - **"It is not credible for any party to go into this year's election without a policy to ensure NZ's super settings are 'affordable and sustainable'"** - **"But my view is that if we want to ensure that every New Zealander in their retirement can be afforded a good retirement, then there will need to be changes to our superannuation settings."** - **"Having no policies to change superannuation settings was the same as saying 'what you want to do is tax New Zealanders more and more and more'"** - **"Whether or not it is through the approaches that the OECD suggests is another question. But is reform required to our superannuation settings? Yes."** ### 3. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon Confirmation - **Confirmed National will campaign on raising super age at the 2026 election** - Luxon on Newstalk ZB: **"We will go to the election with another election policy around superannuation and lifting the retirement age for sure"** - Wants to implement **"as soon as we get back in"** for a second term - Acknowledged needs cross-party support: **"I need Labour and I need NZ First to come on board"** - Called current settings **"unworkable and unaffordable"** - National's policy: raise from 65 to 67, starting after 2044 (from 2023 election policy) ### 4. Full Party Political Positions (as of June 2026) | Party | Position on NZ Super Age | Position on Means-Testing | | --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------- | | **National** | Raise to 67 from 2044; campaign on raising at 2026 election | OECD says means-test top 10%; National non-committal | | **ACT** | Supports raising age, possibly faster than 67 | Supports reform generally | | **NZ First** | **Firmly opposed** — Peters calls it a "top line" not a bottom line | Opposes means-testing | | **Labour** | Keep 65; Hipkins "open to conversation" about means-testing but **not Labour policy** | Hipkins open to discussion but no policy | | **Greens** | Keep 65 | Likely opposes means-testing | | **Māori Party** | Likely keep 65 | Opposes — disproportionately affects Māori/Pasifika | **Political Reality:** Reform is a "non-starter" (The Spinoff) because NZ First blocks any change and National needs either Labour or NZ First to govern. ### 5. Treasury He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 (Long-Term Fiscal Statement) - Released September 2025 — reinforces the same message - On current policy settings, government debt on track toward **200% of GDP** - NZ Super cost could be kept at 5.1% of GDP if age raised to **72 over 40 years** (per Treasury modelling cited in The Spinoff) - Indexing to price inflation instead of wage inflation would save money but is "deeply regressive" — median earner not better off until 2050 ### 6. Media & Analysis Coverage - **RNZ (6 May 2026):** "OECD report suggests raft of reforms to help New Zealand economy" — covered OECD recommendations and initial Willis response - **The Post (Tom Pullar-Strecker, May 2026):** "Nicola Willis agrees NZ superannuation settings must change after OECD warning" — most detailed Willis interview - **Newstalk ZB (May 2026):** Willis on Mike Hosking Breakfast — "changes don't need to be as dramatic" - **NZ Herald (Thomas Manch, June 2025):** "National will run on raising super age 'as soon as we get back in' — Christopher Luxon" - **The Spinoff (15 May 2026):** "The superannuation debate is back — but reform looks like a non-starter" — political analysis - **Financial Standard (Jamie Williamson, 8 May 2026):** "OECD recommends NZ overhaul pension system" — Australian perspective - **WSWS (20 May 2026):** "Bipartisan attack on superannuation looming in New Zealand" — left-wing analysis - **NZ Herald (May 2026):** "NZ Super reforms: Nicola Willis says change can be less 'dramatic' than OECD report" ### 7. Election Implications - OECD report has **restarted the superannuation debate just months before the 2026 election** - National will campaign on raising the age — this will be a major election issue - Labour caught between fiscal reality and political risk of changing super - NZ First's opposition is a critical barrier to any reform - The OECD's ethnic equity analysis (Māori/Pasifika shorter life expectancy) adds a new dimension to the debate - Overseas seniors moving to stretch super (Vietnam, Malaysia examples in The Spinoff) highlights affordability pressure --- ## Source URLs | Source | URL | Date Accessed | | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------- | | OECD Economic Survey NZ 2026 (full report) | https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-new-zealand-2026_3ec5de98-en.html | 11 Jun 2026 | | OECD Report (Recovering in an uncertain world) | https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-new-zealand-2026_3ec5de98-en/full-report/recovering-in-an-uncertain-world_7e812bfa.html | 11 Jun 2026 | | OECD PDF download | https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/05/oecd-economic-surveys-new-zealand-2026_27daa8d8/3ec5de98-en.pdf | 11 Jun 2026 | | RNZ — OECD report suggests raft of reforms | https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/594574/oecd-report-suggests-raft-of-reforms-to-help-new-zealand-economy | 11 Jun 2026 | | The Post — Willis agrees super settings must change | https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360999312/no-shortage-ideas-oecd-how-put-nz-economy-better-track | 11 Jun 2026 | | Newstalk ZB — Willis: changes don't need to be as dramatic | https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/nz-super-reforms-nicola-willis-says-change-can-be-less-dramatic-than-oecd-report/ | 11 Jun 2026 | | NZ Herald — Willis: change can be less dramatic | https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-super-reforms-nicola-willis-says-change-can-be-less-dramatic-than-oecd-report/5HVKAHELSFDNTJI42Q6XFUZ5VU/ | 11 Jun 2026 | | NZ Herald — Luxon confirms National will run on raising super age | https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/national-will-run-on-raising-super-age-as-soon-as-we-get-back-in-christopher-luxon/RTA6XYCZMBD3TND77OIZMTQRNI/ | 11 Jun 2026 | | The Spinoff — Super debate back but reform looks like non-starter | https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/15-05-2026/the-superannuation-debate-is-back-but-reform-looks-like-a-non-starter | 11 Jun 2026 | | Financial Standard — OECD recommends NZ overhaul pension system | https://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/oecd-recommends-nz-overhaul-pension-system-179812468 | 11 Jun 2026 | | Treasury — He Tirohanga Mokopuna 2025 LTFS | https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/ltfp/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-2025 | 11 Jun 2026 | | Treasury — LTFS Media Statement | https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/media-statement/he-tirohanga-mokopuna-treasurys-2025-long-term-fiscal-statement-published | 11 Jun 2026 | | Beehive — Willis speech "Growing NZ – now and for the long term" | https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/growing-nz-%E2%80%93-now-and-long-term | 11 Jun 2026 | --- ## KB ACTION Required ### Update Existing KB Files 1. **`05_Funding_and_Subsidies/2026 OECD - Economic Survey NZ - Ageing and Pension Recommendations.md`** - **Patch needed:** The "Government Response" section (lines 48-54) currently only has the initial brief response. Needs expansion to include: - Willis's detailed comments on Mike Hosking Breakfast (demographic breakdown, "they don't need to be as dramatic") - Luxon's confirmation of election campaign on super age - The full party political positions table with nuanced positions - Election 2026 implications analysis - **Patch needed:** "Political Implications" section (lines 89-100) also needs updating with Luxon's confirmation 2. **`16 Political & Campaign Intelligence/10_Party_Position_Matrices/2026 Party Position Matrix - Seniors and NZ Super.md`** - **Update needed:** Add OECD recommendations column showing alignment/misalignment - Add Luxon's confirmed election policy on super age - Update with Willis's nuanced position (needs reform but less dramatic) 3. **`16 Political & Campaign Intelligence/07_Bills_Hansard_Votes_and_Questions/2026 Tracker - NZ Super and Retirement Income.md`** - **Update needed:** Add entry for OECD report release and government response - Track the election campaign super age debate ### Recommendations for Knowledge Base - **HIGH VALUE** — This is significant new information. The OECD report and subsequent government response represent the most detailed policy debate on NZ Super sustainability in 2026. - The findings show the super age will be a **defining election issue** for 2026 - Cross-link to existing NZ Super Age Debate tracker files --- ## Value Rating 🟠 **High** — Substantive new information on government response to OECD recommendations, detailed Willis/Luxon quotes on super reform, full party position mapping, and election 2026 implications.