2026 Regional Ageing Mini-Brief - Bay of Plenty

Bay of Plenty is New Zealand's fastest-growing region by rate (approximately 1.1% per annum), driven by strong net migration from other parts of NZ and from overseas. Its population is projected to grow from ~310,000 in 2023 to ~430,000 by 2053. Critically, the Bay of Plenty has the most rapidly ageing population of any region. - Thames-Coromandel District will have the highest proportion of residents aged 65+ in New Zealand at 46% by 2053 — nearly half the population. - Tauranga city's rapid growth includes a large cohort of retirement-age migrants (boomers downsizing or relocating for lifestyle). - The region is a net recipient of internal migration from Auckland and other regions, with many moving in their 50s and 60s. - The 85+ population triples, creating significant aged care and health service pressure in a region with fewer acute hospital resources than major metro areas. - Aged care quality and access is the defining seniors issue in this region - Hospital services — Tauranga Hospital capacity and access to specialty care directly affect older voters - Housing affordability for downsizers — Tauranga's rising prices affect seniors wanting to downsize - Rates affordability — Seniors on fixed incomes in Thames-Coromandel and Tauranga are sensitive to council rate increases - Climate resilience — Coastal property and infrastructure vulnerability affects older homeowners - NZ Super age debate — National's proposed lift to 67 is electora