Stats NZ - Web Capture - Subnational Population Projections
Stats NZ
Official data
Official primary
June 2026
Next review not yet scheduled
New Zealand
Medium confidence
published
SNZ editorial review
Evidence boundary: This record summarises the cited source. It does not establish local availability, individual eligibility, or professional advice.
Short Answer
Stats NZ released subnational population projections by age and sex for all 16 regions of New Zealand and 67 territorial authorities (TAs), covering the period from 2023 (base) to 2053.
Key Points
- •65+ population reaches 1 million by 2029
- •65+ population approaches ~1.5 million by the early 2050s, representing ~23% of the total population
- •Highest 65+ proportion: Thames-Coromandel District (46%)
- •Auckland projected to reach 2 million residents around 2033
- •West Coast is the only declining region in New Zealand
- •Natural decrease (more deaths than births) projected in 47 of 67 TAs by 2053
Full Summary & Notes
Stats NZ released subnational population projections by age and sex for all 16 regions of New Zealand and 67 territorial authorities (TAs), covering the period from 2023 (base) to 2053. - 65+ population reaches 1 million by 2029 - 65+ population approaches ~1.5 million by the early 2050s, representing ~23% of the total population - Highest 65+ proportion: Thames-Coromandel District (46%) - Auckland projected to reach 2 million residents around 2033 - West Coast is the only declining region in New Zealand - Natural decrease (more deaths than births) projected in 47 of 67 TAs by 2053 These projections underscore the accelerating demographic shift toward an older population across nearly all regions of New Zealand. The data is critical for: - Funding and resource allocation planning for health, social services, and infrastructure - Workforce and economic participation strategies for older New Zealanders - Local government long-term planning and ageing-in-place initiatives - Policy development around retirement income, NZ Superannuation, and aged care provision
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