NZIER / Office for Seniors — Business of Ageing: 2023 Update (Published August 2024)
NZIER, commissioned by the Office for Seniors
Publisher: Office for Seniors
Sector evidence
Market research
2026-10-09
Next review not yet scheduled
New Zealand
High confidence
verified
SNZ editorial review
Evidence boundary: NZIER’s 2023 model update, published August 2024, with 26 physical pages and original June 2026 access label. Forecasts to 2071 use historical data, real-dollar bases and assumptions. Unpaid-work narrative/table discrepancies, household proxies and the 2026 successor’s GST calculation correction are disclosed; projections are not observed 2026 outcomes or guaranteed market demand.
Short Answer
Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the contribution of people aged 65 and over through paid work, self-employment, tax, expenditure and unpaid activity.
Key Points
- •The 26-page original is authored by Tom Dunn, quality approved by Todd Krieble and commissioned by the Office for Seniors. Page 2 states Published August 2024; the cover says July 2024 and ‘2023 update’ identifies the model edition.
- •Table 1 projects the 65+ population from 868,800 in 2023 to 1,809,400 in 2071, using the stated Stats NZ median population assumptions, rather than observed future counts (pp. 5–7).
- •Table 2 distinguishes 194,700 older workers in 2021, 208,300 in 2023 and a projected 392,400 in 2071. The older workforce’s national share rises from 6.7% in 2021 to 10.6% in 2071 (pp. 7–9).
- •The model projects wages and salaries from $5.9 billion in 2021 to $30.7 billion in 2071, expressed in constant 2021 dollars. Real-wage and demographic assumptions drive these estimates (p. 13).
- •Unpaid-work valuation uses 2009–10 Time Use Survey hours and alternative proxy wages. Table 5 and the narrative/key points give differing totals; exact unpaid-work headline amounts need reconciliation before reuse (p. 15).
- •Household-spending estimates use proxy household types because age-specific series were unavailable; the report warns that these may distort housing and utilities and do not reliably describe the actual 65+ spending distribution (pp. 15–18).
Full Summary & Notes
Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the contribution of people aged 65 and over through paid work, self-employment, tax, expenditure and unpaid activity. The report uses 2021 and 2023 baselines and a projection horizon to 2071, showing growing older-worker numbers even as population ageing reduces the group’s overall participation rate. Despite its ‘2023 update’ title and July 2024 cover date, the publication statement says August 2024. Its forecasts, proxy spending data and inconsistent unpaid-work figures are historical evidence; the separately published 2026 model changes inputs and the GST treatment of asset drawdown.
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