NZIER / Office for Seniors — Business of Ageing: 2026 Update
NZIER, commissioned by the Office for Seniors
Publisher: Office for Seniors
Sector evidence
Market research
2026-10-09
Next review not yet scheduled
New Zealand
Medium confidence
verified
SNZ editorial review
Evidence boundary: April 2026 NZIER model publicly announced 15 April; 23 physical pages, 2024 baseline and projections to 2074 in constant 2024 dollars. Forecasts, proxy spending and imputed unpaid-work values are not observed future outcomes or cash earnings. GST on drawdown corrects the previous asset measure. Conflicting captions/headings and the conclusion’s workforce share are disclosed; labelled tables/narrative and denominators are retained. Original June 2026 capture label preserved.
Short Answer
Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the economic contribution of people aged 65 and over using a 2024 base and a 50-year outlook to 2074.
Key Points
- •The 23-page original is authored by Tom Dunn, quality approved by Todd Krieble, and dated April 2026. The official Beehive release establishes public announcement on 15 April 2026; the 2024 baseline is a separate date (physical pp. 1, 3).
- •Table 1 uses median population projections with a 30 June 2024 base: 874,000 people aged 65+ in 2024 rising to 2,128,300 in 2074; the 80+ group rises from 208,300 to 854,200 (printed p. 2).
- •Tables 2–3 project the older labour force from 217,400 in 2024 to 477,800 in 2074. Its national share rises from 7.1% to 10.9%, while the 65+ participation rate falls from 24.87% to 22.45%; the 2024 rate for ages 65–69 is 48.56% (printed pp. 3–6).
- •The model treats wages/salaries ($8.7 billion in 2024) and self-employment ($5.1 billion) separately, projecting $50.2 billion and $29.3 billion respectively in 2074, in constant 2024 dollars. They should not be conflated with total older-person income (printed p. 6).
- •Table 5 values unpaid activity at $19.1–$21.4 billion in 2024 and $121.0–$138.3 billion in 2074 under alternative wage assumptions. Hours come from the 2009–10 Time Use Survey; this is imputed value, not unpaid carers’ cash earnings (printed p. 8).
- •Table 4 projects all tax including assumed GST on a 4% financial-asset drawdown from $14.9 billion in 2024 to $93.7 billion in 2074. The stated comparison excluding that drawdown GST is $13.1 billion to $80.1 billion; the financial-asset measure corrects the prior update (printed pp. 7–8).
Full Summary & Notes
Tom Dunn’s NZIER update for the Office for Seniors models the economic contribution of people aged 65 and over using a 2024 base and a 50-year outlook to 2074. It separates wages, self-employment, government transfers, asset drawdown, taxes, unpaid activity and spending. Older-worker numbers grow while the group’s total participation rate falls as the 80+ population expands. Unpaid-work values use older time-use data and proxy wages; expenditure uses household-type proxies. A corrected financial-asset base changes comparability with the previous report. Published publicly on 15 April 2026, the report contains conflicting captions/headings, so the companion identifies the precise tables and narrative used for each estimate.
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