Treasury — He Tirohanga Mokopuna: Long-term Fiscal Statement 2025
The Treasury — Te Tai Ōhanga
Publisher: The Treasury
Official data
Official primary
2026-10-09
Next review not yet scheduled
New Zealand
High confidence
verified
SNZ editorial review
Evidence boundary: Treasury statement issued 24 September 2025; 84 physical pages, projections to 2065 using stated models and assumptions. An unchanged-policy debt trajectory is explicitly not a prediction. Pension ages, tax rates and reform examples are scenarios, not enacted policy or personal retirement advice. Publisher web updates and original June 2026 capture label remain separate from publication and October 2026 review.
Short Answer
Treasury’s sixth Long-term Fiscal Statement examines a 40-year fiscal outlook to 2065 using an accounting model and a model of interacting generations.
Key Points
- •Treasury’s publisher page gives both signed and issue dates as 24 September 2025. The original contains 84 physical pages and has a September 2025 cover; the page’s July 2026 update is a separate web-maintenance date.
- •The sixth statement projects 40 years to 2065. Under unchanged spending/revenue policy, debt approaches 200% of GDP; Treasury says it expects policy action and does not present this as a prediction (printed p. 2).
- •The unchanged-policy illustration puts inflation-adjusted spending per person at $18,300 in the 2025 baseline and $35,900 in 2065. These are modelled scenario values, not approved future spending (printed p. 2).
- •The report’s unchanged-policy scenario raises NZ Super expenditure from 5.1% of GDP in its baseline to around 8% in 2065, and health expenditure from 7.1% to around 10% (printed p. 3).
- •The Long-term Fiscal Model holds policy settings fixed without behavioural feedback; the Overlapping Generations model includes household/firm responses and intergenerational effects. Their projections are complementary analytical approaches (printed pp. 76–78).
- •Sensitivity analysis particularly identifies interest-rate and migration assumptions. The statement also assumes near-term deficit consolidation based on the 2025 Budget Update; failing to achieve it worsens the challenge (printed pp. 2–3).
Full Summary & Notes
Treasury’s sixth Long-term Fiscal Statement examines a 40-year fiscal outlook to 2065 using an accounting model and a model of interacting generations. Its unchanged-policy scenario shows growing pressure from superannuation, healthcare and other spending, with debt approaching 200% of GDP; Treasury explicitly says this is a scenario, not its prediction. The report explores combinations of pension reform, expenditure restraint, taxes, savings and public investment, including distributional effects across generations. Assumptions about interest rates, migration and productivity materially affect the paths. Issued on 24 September 2025, this statement is separate from Treasury’s Long-term Insights Briefing and does not announce enacted pension ages or tax rates.
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