Stats NZ - Web Capture - National Population Projections

New Zealand's population is ageing across all projection scenarios. The key trends for older age groups are: - From 2024 to 2051, the number of people aged 65+ increases by 66–78%. - As a share of total population, 65+ rises from roughly 1 in 6 to 1 in 5 (or more). - The 85+ population is projected to more than triple (increase by 190–240%) by 2051. - This group has the highest per-person need for health services, residential care, home support, and disability services. - By the late 2040s, there will be more people aged 85+ than there are people aged 65+ today. - Projected to grow from approximately 1,200 in 2024 to between 5,400 and 7,200 by 2051 — a 4- to 6-fold increase. The dependency ratio measures the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15–64 (the traditional 'working age' population). It is a key indicator of economic support pressure. - In 2024, there were about 25 people aged 65+ for every 100 working-age people. - By 2051, this is projected to rise to 33–38 people aged 65+ per 100 working-age people — a 32–52% increase. - This means fewer working-age people per older person, with implications for: - Tax revenue and spending on NZ Superannuation - Health and disability workforce supply - Aged residential care capacity - Informal care supply (fewer family carers available) The large cohorts born in the 1950s–1970s (baby boomers) are moving through the age structure: - In the 2020s and 2030s, this group is aged 55–85+ — driving th